Abstract
These crops suffer from fluctuations in production quantities, cultivated areas, and average yield productivity during the period (2004-2021). The analytical descriptive method and the standard method for measuring production volume and estimating the production functions of strategic summer agricultural crops in Iraq for the period (2004-2021) and future predictions for the volume of production of those crops, as this research dealt with two axes, the first axis included the reality of the production of strategic summer agricultural crops in Iraq and the factors influencing them for the period (2004-2021), while the second axis dealt with estimating and measuring the functions of producing summer strategic agricultural crops in Iraq for the period (2004-2021) and its future forecasts for the period (2022-2023), By using the standard model (Eveiws12) for a set of tests, during which the researcher dealt with a quarterly series of (24) observations, based on official data and statistics issued by the relevant ministries, where he used a set of standard methods and was the most important. The stability test (Extended Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips-Peron test), the cointegration test of the error correction model, and the autoregressive distributed delay (ARDL) model test. Therefore, the results of this axis were the existence of a relationship between the production quantities of strategic summer agricultural crops and the variables affecting them, As for future predictions, the study showed that the quantities of rice production are trending downward, while the yellow corn crop is trending towards an increase, which necessitated focusing on recommendations, the most important of which are: If we want to increase the volume of crop production, we have to control and control these factors now and in the future, as well as state support for farms. From providing agricultural production requirements and manufacturing them locally and preventing their import from abroad, and using modern and advanced methods of agricultural machinery and equipment, which would raise the production of summer strategic agricultural crops.
